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College Football Intelligence — portal fit, roster lab, game intel

🎯 Game Intel
2026 • Week 6
CMU
Central Michigan
Mid-American • Chippewas
AWAY
@
OHIO
Ohio
Mid-American • Bobcats
HOME
🎯Win Probability Forecast
CMU
26%
win probability
PROJECTED SCORE
CMU 19 – OHIO 29
Total: 48 pts
High Data Confidence
Line: CMU -3 • total 46.0
Bovada • context only, not a pick
OHIO (HOME)
74%
win probability
Model cfb-sp-v1: SP+ edge, home field, rest and travel. Officials are not published in the college feed, so there is no crew adjustment.
🧠What drives the forecast
✓Ohio holds the ratings edge over Central Michigan, about 8.2 points on SP+.
✓Home field for Ohio is worth about 2.5 points.
Penalty risk
🚩CMU draws Defensive Holding 1.6 times a game over 5 games. Mid-American crews call it 11% more often than FBS crews, so about 1.8 expected.
🚩CMU draws Offensive Holding 1.2 times a game over 5 games.
⚔️Team Profiles
StatCentral MichiganOhio
SP+ overall rank129109
SP+ offense rank136105
SP+ defense rank100101
Pass rate35%40%
Plays per game62.267.8
Explosive play rate5.5%6.4%
Explosives allowed6.7%6.3%
Sack rate (defense)5.9%5.2%
Offense success rate38.3%44.7%
Offense PPA / play0.100.17
Defense PPA allowed0.170.20
Havoc rate (defense)15.1%16.5%
Central Michigan derived scheme
run heavy
Ohio derived scheme
run heavy
SP+ and advanced stats from CFBD for the current season; scheme tags derived from the play-by-play. Lower rank is better.
🏃Officiating Crew
MID-AMERICAN Mid-American officials
Mid-American crews call about as many penalties as the FBS average (12.39 per game); the home-visitor split is even. Most common: False Start.
Flags / game
12.39
FBS average
12.74
vs FBS
-2.7%
Yards / game
109.3
On home team
50%
Home lean
+1.8 pts
Most called
False Start2.52 / game
Offensive Holding2.0 / game
Defensive Pass Interference1.31 / game
Defensive Offside0.79 / game
Defensive Holding0.78 / game
Delay of Game0.65 / game
77 games on file for this conference's crews over the last two seasons. Officials are not published for college games. College crews are assigned by conference, so this is the profile of the conference that staffs this game.
📋Coaching Staffs
Central Michigan
Head coachMatt Drinkall
Ohio
Head coachJohn Hauser
Coordinators appear when the staff file lists them.
🏟️Situational Context
Kickoff
Sat Oct 10, 3:30 PM ET
Venue
Frank Solich Field at Peden Stadium
Location
Athens, OH
Roof
outdoor
Conference game
Yes
Neutral site
No
Game type
regular
Officials
Not published