PROJECTED SCORE
FSU 27 – LOU 33
Total: 60 pts
High Data Confidence
Line:
FSU -3.5 • total 59.5
DraftKings • context only, not a pick
LOU (HOME)
65%
win probability
Model cfb-sp-v1: SP+ edge, home field, rest and travel. Officials are not published in the college feed, so there is no crew adjustment.
✓Louisville holds the ratings edge over Florida State, about 4.2 points on SP+.
✓Home field for Louisville is worth about 2.5 points.
✓Florida State travels about 500 miles.
Penalty risk
🚩Atlantic Coast crews call 11% more penalties than the FBS average (14.1 per game); the home-visitor split is even. Most common: False Start.
🚩FSU draws False Start 1.6 times a game over 5 games. Atlantic Coast crews call it 11% more often than FBS crews, so about 1.8 expected.
🚩LOU draws Offensive Holding 1.2 times a game over 5 games. Atlantic Coast crews call it 15% more often than FBS crews, so about 1.4 expected.
🚩FSU draws Offensive Holding 1.0 times a game over 5 games. Atlantic Coast crews call it 15% more often than FBS crews, so about 1.1 expected.