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College Football Intelligence — portal fit, roster lab, game intel

🎯 Game Intel
2026 • Week 6
TENN
Tennessee
Southeastern • Volunteers
AWAY
@
ARK
Arkansas
Southeastern • Razorbacks
HOME
🎯Win Probability Forecast
TENN
82%
win probability
PROJECTED SCORE
TENN 36 – ARK 20
Total: 56 pts
High Data Confidence
Line: ARK -13.5 • total 51.5
DraftKings • context only, not a pick
ARK (HOME)
18%
win probability
Model cfb-sp-v1: SP+ edge, home field, rest and travel. Officials are not published in the college feed, so there is no crew adjustment.
🧠What drives the forecast
✓Tennessee holds the ratings edge over Arkansas, about 18.0 points on SP+.
✓Home field for Arkansas is worth about 2.5 points.
✓Tennessee travels about 600 miles.
✓Tennessee's offense ranks 14th in SP+.
Penalty risk
🚩TENN draws False Start 2.2 times a game over 5 games.
🚩ARK draws False Start 1.2 times a game over 5 games.
🚩TENN draws Offensive Holding 1.0 times a game over 5 games.
⚔️Team Profiles
StatTennesseeArkansas
SP+ overall rank1470
SP+ offense rank1459
SP+ defense rank2690
Pass rate48%54%
Plays per game73.869.6
Explosive play rate6.5%8.4%
Explosives allowed6.1%7.5%
Sack rate (defense)8.9%5.9%
Offense success rate45.1%41.1%
Offense PPA / play0.200.01
Defense PPA allowed-0.090.17
Havoc rate (defense)21.7%12.3%
Tennessee derived scheme
balancedpressure defenseup tempo
Arkansas derived scheme
pass heavy
SP+ and advanced stats from CFBD for the current season; scheme tags derived from the play-by-play. Lower rank is better.
🏃Officiating Crew
SEC Southeastern officials
Southeastern crews call about as many penalties as the FBS average (13.35 per game); the home-visitor split is even. Most common: False Start.
Flags / game
13.35
FBS average
12.74
vs FBS
+4.8%
Yards / game
115.3
On home team
48%
Home lean
-0.3 pts
Most called
False Start2.6 / game
Offensive Holding2.19 / game
Defensive Pass Interference1.3 / game
Defensive Offside0.95 / game
Defensive Holding0.8 / game
Delay of Game0.66 / game
145 games on file for this conference's crews over the last two seasons. Officials are not published for college games. College crews are assigned by conference, so this is the profile of the conference that staffs this game.
📋Coaching Staffs
Tennessee
Head coachJosh Heupel
Arkansas
Head coachRyan Silverfield
Coordinators appear when the staff file lists them.
🏟️Situational Context
Kickoff
Sat Oct 10, 4:15 PM ET
Venue
Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium
Location
Fayetteville, AR
Roof
outdoor
Conference game
Yes
Neutral site
No
Game type
regular
Officials
Not published