✓Western Kentucky holds the ratings edge over Missouri State, about 1.2 points on SP+.
✓Home field for Western Kentucky is worth about 2.5 points.
Penalty risk
🚩Conference USA crews call 9% more penalties than the FBS average (13.8 per game); the home-visitor split is even. Most common: Offensive Holding.
🚩MOSU draws Offensive Holding 2.2 times a game over 4 games. Conference USA crews call it 13% more often than FBS crews, so about 2.5 expected.
🚩WKU draws Offensive Holding 1.6 times a game over 5 games. Conference USA crews call it 13% more often than FBS crews, so about 1.8 expected.
🚩WKU draws False Start 1.8 times a game over 5 games. Conference USA crews call it 12% less often than FBS crews, so about 1.6 expected.
Western Kentucky ran for 238 yards and pulled away from Missouri State 34-13, scoring 27 of the game's last 34 points.
Two 100-yard rushers. Senior running back Ajay Allen ran 14 times for 105 yards and two touchdowns, a 3-yarder late in the first half and a 39-yarder in the fourth quarter. Junior quarterback Brock Glenn added 100 yards on 16 carries with a 1-yard touchdown run, and went 20 for 36 for 231 yards with a 42-yard touchdown to Jonathan Stafford Jr. and no interceptions. The Hilltoppers outgained Missouri State 469 to 340, held the ball for 31:43 to 26:20, and converted 9 of 18 third downs.
Missouri State lived on the long gain. Skyler Locklear went 12 for 25 for 89 yards with an interception, but ran 8 times for 76 yards, including a 48-yard run to the Western Kentucky 11 that swung 10.5 points of win probability toward the Bears. Henry Belin IV threw the Bears' only touchdown, 36 yards to Isaiah Myers, who led all receivers with 5 catches for 77 yards. Jmariyae Robinson caught 14 passes but for only 41 yards, and Missouri State converted 4 of 15 third downs.
Stops that decided it. Tony Newsome Jr. intercepted Locklear at the Western Kentucky 32 on the Bears' first drive, a swing of 6.4 points of win probability, and the Hilltoppers turned it into a touchdown. Jordan Donald sacked Locklear on fourth and three at the Western Kentucky 42 late in the second quarter, worth 8.1 points of win probability, and Western Kentucky scored on the next drive. Missouri State went 1 of 4 on fourth downs and scored one touchdown on four trips inside the Western Kentucky 30, while the Hilltoppers scored four touchdowns on seven trips.
How it played out
Tony Newsome Jr. intercepted Skyler Locklear in the first quarter, and Western Kentucky followed with a 12-play drive that used 4:11 and ended on Brock Glenn's 1-yard touchdown run. 7-0.
Missouri State answered with a 12-play drive over 4:22, sparked by Locklear's 48-yard run to the Western Kentucky 11, and settled for a 25-yard field goal. 7-3.
The Bears went 15 plays from their own 10 in 5:35 of the second quarter and kicked a 31-yard field goal. 7-6.
Western Kentucky needed five plays and 1:29, with Glenn hitting Jonathan Stafford Jr. for a 42-yard touchdown. 14-6.
Jordan Donald sacked Locklear on fourth and three, and the Hilltoppers took a nine-play, 2:52 drive to Ajay Allen's 3-yard touchdown run with 44 seconds left in the half. 21-6.
Missouri State went 12 plays from its own 5 in 5:14 of the third quarter, and Henry Belin IV found Isaiah Myers for a 36-yard touchdown that was upheld on review. 21-13.
Western Kentucky answered with a 13-play, 5:11 drive for a 34-yard field goal, then an 11-play, 4:21 drive that ended in a 43-yard field goal at 11:22 of the fourth quarter. 27-13.
Missouri State's last real threat died at the Western Kentucky 22 when Belin's fourth and three pass for Jmariyae Robinson fell incomplete at 7:54, and Allen broke a 39-yard touchdown run five plays later. Western Kentucky's final drive reached first and goal at the Missouri State 9 and ran out the clock. 34-13.
Written from the play-by-play, the stat lines and the win probability record of this game on 2026-10-09. Every number traces to a play in the feed.