PROJECTED SCORE
SHSU 17 – LIB 35
Total: 52 pts
High Data Confidence
Line:
SHSU -13.5 • total 52.5
DraftKings • context only, not a pick
LIB (HOME)
86%
win probability
Model cfb-sp-v1: SP+ edge, home field, rest and travel. Officials are not published in the college feed, so there is no crew adjustment.
✓Liberty holds the ratings edge over Sam Houston, about 16.6 points on SP+.
✓Home field for Liberty is worth about 2.5 points.
✓Sam Houston comes in with an extra week of rest.
✓Sam Houston travels about 1,000 miles.
Penalty risk
🚩Conference USA crews call 9% more penalties than the FBS average (13.8 per game); the home-visitor split is even. Most common: Offensive Holding.
🚩LIB draws Offensive Holding 1.8 times a game over 5 games. Conference USA crews call it 13% more often than FBS crews, so about 2.0 expected.
🚩LIB draws False Start 1.6 times a game over 5 games. Conference USA crews call it 12% less often than FBS crews, so about 1.4 expected.
🚩SHSU draws False Start 1.5 times a game over 4 games. Conference USA crews call it 12% less often than FBS crews, so about 1.3 expected.