PROJECTED SCORE
MINN 33 – PUR 23
Total: 56 pts
High Data Confidence
Line:
PUR -2.5 • total 50.5
Bovada • context only, not a pick
PUR (HOME)
27%
win probability
Model cfb-sp-v1: SP+ edge, home field, rest and travel. Officials are not published in the college feed, so there is no crew adjustment.
✓Minnesota holds the ratings edge over Purdue, about 12.9 points on SP+.
✓Home field for Purdue is worth about 2.5 points.
Penalty risk
🚩Big Ten crews call 17% fewer penalties than the FBS average (10.55 per game); the home-visitor split is even. Most common: False Start.
🚩MINN draws False Start 1.6 times a game over 5 games. Big Ten crews call it 12% less often than FBS crews, so about 1.4 expected.
🚩PUR draws False Start 1.4 times a game over 5 games. Big Ten crews call it 12% less often than FBS crews, so about 1.2 expected.
🚩PUR draws Defensive Pass Interference 1.2 times a game over 5 games.