PROJECTED SCORE
NDSU 30 – UNLV 22
Total: 52 pts
High Data Confidence
Line:
UNLV -3 • total 47.5
Bovada • context only, not a pick
UNLV (HOME)
33%
win probability
Model cfb-sp-v1: SP+ edge, home field, rest and travel. Officials are not published in the college feed, so there is no crew adjustment.
✓North Dakota State holds the ratings edge over UNLV, about 10.2 points on SP+.
✓Home field for UNLV is worth about 2.5 points.
✓North Dakota State travels about 1,200 miles.
Penalty risk
🚩UNLV draws Offensive Holding 1.6 times a game over 5 games. Mountain West crews call it 24% more often than FBS crews, so about 2.0 expected.
🚩NDSU draws False Start 1.4 times a game over 5 games.
🚩NDSU draws Offensive Holding 1.0 times a game over 5 games. Mountain West crews call it 24% more often than FBS crews, so about 1.2 expected.