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College Football Intelligence — portal fit, roster lab, game intel

🎯 Game Intel
2026 • Week 6
TLSA
Tulsa
American • Golden Hurricane
AWAY
@
NAVY
Navy
American • Midshipmen
HOME
🎯Win Probability Forecast
TLSA
44%
win probability
PROJECTED SCORE
TLSA 24 – NAVY 27
Total: 51 pts
High Data Confidence
Line: TLSA -2 • total 49.0
Bovada • context only, not a pick
NAVY (HOME)
56%
win probability
Model cfb-sp-v1: SP+ edge, home field, rest and travel. Officials are not published in the college feed, so there is no crew adjustment.
🧠What drives the forecast
✓Home field for Navy is worth about 2.5 points.
✓Tulsa travels about 1,100 miles.
Penalty risk
🚩TLSA draws Offensive Holding 1.6 times a game over 5 games.
🚩NAVY draws False Start 1.0 times a game over 4 games.
🚩NAVY draws Defensive Pass Interference 1.0 times a game over 4 games.
⚔️Team Profiles
StatTulsaNavy
SP+ overall rank8385
SP+ offense rank10178
SP+ defense rank6095
Pass rate50%24%
Plays per game75.564.9
Explosive play rate5.5%6.9%
Explosives allowed5.7%6.9%
Sack rate (defense)6.1%7.5%
Offense success rate40.5%46.9%
Offense PPA / play0.130.17
Defense PPA allowed-0.020.07
Havoc rate (defense)14.0%13.0%
Tulsa derived scheme
balancedup tempo
Navy derived scheme
run heavy
SP+ and advanced stats from CFBD for the current season; scheme tags derived from the play-by-play. Lower rank is better.
🏃Officiating Crew
AAC American officials
American crews call 7% fewer penalties than the FBS average (11.9 per game); the home-visitor split is even. Most common: False Start.
Flags / game
11.9
FBS average
12.74
vs FBS
-6.6%
Yards / game
104.0
On home team
47%
Home lean
-1.0 pts
Most called
False Start2.84 / game
Offensive Holding2.01 / game
Defensive Pass Interference1.38 / game
Defensive Offside0.78 / game
Defensive Holding0.57 / game
Personal Foul / Defense0.45 / game
96 games on file for this conference's crews over the last two seasons. Officials are not published for college games. College crews are assigned by conference, so this is the profile of the conference that staffs this game.
📋Coaching Staffs
Tulsa
Head coachTre Lamb
Navy
Head coachBrian Newberry
Coordinators appear when the staff file lists them.
🏟️Situational Context
Kickoff
Sat Oct 10, 3:30 PM ET
Venue
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
Location
Annapolis, MD
Roof
outdoor
Conference game
Yes
Neutral site
No
Game type
regular
Officials
Not published