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College Football Intelligence — portal fit, roster lab, game intel

🎯 Game Intel
2026 • Week 6
BUFF
Buffalo
Mid-American • Bulls
AWAY
@
TOL
Toledo
Mid-American • Rockets
HOME
🎯Win Probability Forecast
BUFF
12%
win probability
PROJECTED SCORE
BUFF 15 – TOL 35
Total: 50 pts
High Data Confidence
Line: BUFF -20.5 • total 55.5
Bovada • context only, not a pick
TOL (HOME)
88%
win probability
Model cfb-sp-v1: SP+ edge, home field, rest and travel. Officials are not published in the college feed, so there is no crew adjustment.
🧠What drives the forecast
✓Toledo holds the ratings edge over Buffalo, about 17.5 points on SP+.
✓Home field for Toledo is worth about 2.5 points.
Penalty risk
🚩TOL draws Offensive Holding 1.8 times a game over 5 games.
🚩BUFF draws False Start 1.2 times a game over 5 games.
⚔️Team Profiles
StatBuffaloToledo
SP+ overall rank12467
SP+ offense rank12967
SP+ defense rank10768
Pass rate52%48%
Plays per game71.970.4
Explosive play rate5.1%7.5%
Explosives allowed5.3%4.5%
Sack rate (defense)8.0%8.2%
Offense success rate35.0%43.9%
Offense PPA / play0.010.25
Defense PPA allowed0.12-0.01
Havoc rate (defense)15.1%14.0%
Buffalo derived scheme
balancedlimits explosivespressure defense
Toledo derived scheme
balancedlimits explosivespressure defense
SP+ and advanced stats from CFBD for the current season; scheme tags derived from the play-by-play. Lower rank is better.
🏃Officiating Crew
MID-AMERICAN Mid-American officials
Mid-American crews call about as many penalties as the FBS average (12.39 per game); the home-visitor split is even. Most common: False Start.
Flags / game
12.39
FBS average
12.74
vs FBS
-2.7%
Yards / game
109.3
On home team
50%
Home lean
+1.8 pts
Most called
False Start2.52 / game
Offensive Holding2.0 / game
Defensive Pass Interference1.31 / game
Defensive Offside0.79 / game
Defensive Holding0.78 / game
Delay of Game0.65 / game
77 games on file for this conference's crews over the last two seasons. Officials are not published for college games. College crews are assigned by conference, so this is the profile of the conference that staffs this game.
📋Coaching Staffs
Buffalo
Head coachPete Lembo
Toledo
Head coachMike Jacobs
Coordinators appear when the staff file lists them.
🏟️Situational Context
Kickoff
Sat Oct 10, 3:30 PM ET
Venue
Glass Bowl
Location
Toledo, OH
Roof
outdoor
Conference game
Yes
Neutral site
No
Game type
regular
Officials
Not published