PROJECTED SCORE
ULL 29 – LT 24
Total: 53 pts
High Data Confidence
Line:
ULL -3 • total 48.0
Bovada • context only, not a pick
LT (HOME)
40%
win probability
Model cfb-sp-v1: SP+ edge, home field, rest and travel. Officials are not published in the college feed, so there is no crew adjustment.
✓Louisiana holds the ratings edge over Louisiana Tech, about 6.8 points on SP+.
✓Home field for Louisiana Tech is worth about 2.5 points.
Penalty risk
🚩Sun Belt crews call 8% more penalties than the FBS average (13.8 per game); the home-visitor split is even. Most common: False Start.
🚩ULL draws False Start 1.8 times a game over 5 games.
🚩ULL draws Offensive Holding 1.4 times a game over 5 games. Sun Belt crews call it 15% more often than FBS crews, so about 1.6 expected.
🚩LT draws Offensive Holding 1.0 times a game over 4 games. Sun Belt crews call it 15% more often than FBS crews, so about 1.1 expected.