ChallengeFlag

College Football Intelligence — portal fit, roster lab, game intel

🎯 Game Intel
2026 • Week 6
MISS
Ole Miss
Southeastern • Rebels
AWAY
@
VAN
Vanderbilt
Southeastern • Commodores
HOME
🎯Win Probability Forecast
MISS
55%
win probability
PROJECTED SCORE
MISS 30 – VAN 28
Total: 58 pts
High Data Confidence
Line: VAN -9 • total 54.5
Bovada • context only, not a pick
VAN (HOME)
45%
win probability
Model cfb-sp-v1: SP+ edge, home field, rest and travel. Officials are not published in the college feed, so there is no crew adjustment.
🧠What drives the forecast
✓Ole Miss holds the ratings edge over Vanderbilt, about 3.6 points on SP+.
✓Home field for Vanderbilt is worth about 2.5 points.
✓Ole Miss comes in with an extra week of rest.
✓Ole Miss's offense ranks 12th in SP+.
Penalty risk
🚩VAN draws False Start 2.8 times a game over 5 games.
🚩VAN draws Offensive Holding 1.6 times a game over 5 games.
🚩MISS draws Offensive Holding 1.5 times a game over 4 games.
⚔️Team Profiles
StatOle MissVanderbilt
SP+ overall rank3248
SP+ offense rank1246
SP+ defense rank7545
Pass rate52%53%
Plays per game74.765.3
Explosive play rate8.1%7.9%
Explosives allowed5.7%5.7%
Sack rate (defense)6.8%6.6%
Offense success rate51.8%40.4%
Offense PPA / play0.250.09
Defense PPA allowed0.220.07
Havoc rate (defense)13.0%15.5%
Ole Miss derived scheme
balancedup tempo
Vanderbilt derived scheme
pass heavy
SP+ and advanced stats from CFBD for the current season; scheme tags derived from the play-by-play. Lower rank is better.
🏃Officiating Crew
SEC Southeastern officials
Southeastern crews call about as many penalties as the FBS average (13.35 per game); the home-visitor split is even. Most common: False Start.
Flags / game
13.35
FBS average
12.74
vs FBS
+4.8%
Yards / game
115.3
On home team
48%
Home lean
-0.3 pts
Most called
False Start2.6 / game
Offensive Holding2.19 / game
Defensive Pass Interference1.3 / game
Defensive Offside0.95 / game
Defensive Holding0.8 / game
Delay of Game0.66 / game
145 games on file for this conference's crews over the last two seasons. Officials are not published for college games. College crews are assigned by conference, so this is the profile of the conference that staffs this game.
📋Coaching Staffs
Ole Miss
Head coachPete Golding
Vanderbilt
Head coachClark Lea
Coordinators appear when the staff file lists them.
🏟️Situational Context
Kickoff
Sat Oct 10, 3:30 PM ET
Venue
FirstBank Stadium
Location
Nashville, TN
Roof
outdoor
Conference game
Yes
Neutral site
No
Game type
regular
Officials
Not published