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College Football Intelligence — portal fit, roster lab, game intel

🎯 Game Intel
2026 • Week 6
BSU
Boise State
Pac-12 • Broncos
AWAY
@
FRES
Fresno State
Pac-12 • Bulldogs
HOME
🎯Win Probability Forecast
BSU
62%
win probability
PROJECTED SCORE
BSU 29 – FRES 24
Total: 52 pts
High Data Confidence
Line: FRES -7 • total 48.0
Bovada • context only, not a pick
FRES (HOME)
38%
win probability
Model cfb-sp-v1: SP+ edge, home field, rest and travel. Officials are not published in the college feed, so there is no crew adjustment.
🧠What drives the forecast
✓Boise State holds the ratings edge over Fresno State, about 7.9 points on SP+.
✓Home field for Fresno State is worth about 2.5 points.
✓Boise State travels about 500 miles.
Penalty risk
🚩BSU draws Defensive Pass Interference 1.8 times a game over 5 games. Pac-12 crews call it 14% less often than FBS crews, so about 1.5 expected.
🚩FRES draws False Start 1.2 times a game over 5 games.
⚔️Team Profiles
StatBoise StateFresno State
SP+ overall rank4770
SP+ offense rank2990
SP+ defense rank5650
Pass rate47%47%
Plays per game74.767.1
Explosive play rate7.0%6.3%
Explosives allowed8.1%4.8%
Sack rate (defense)6.6%6.8%
Offense success rate49.3%37.9%
Offense PPA / play0.300.11
Defense PPA allowed0.00-0.07
Havoc rate (defense)20.1%16.0%
Boise State derived scheme
balancedup tempo
Fresno State derived scheme
balancedlimits explosives
SP+ and advanced stats from CFBD for the current season; scheme tags derived from the play-by-play. Lower rank is better.
🏃Officiating Crew
PAC-12 Pac-12 officials
Pac-12 crews call 5% more penalties than the FBS average (13.39 per game); the home-visitor split is even. Most common: False Start.
Flags / game
13.39
FBS average
12.74
vs FBS
+5.1%
Yards / game
119.2
On home team
49%
Home lean
+0.9 pts
Most called
False Start2.77 / game
Offensive Holding2.39 / game
Defensive Pass Interference1.14 / game
Defensive Holding0.89 / game
Defensive Offside0.84 / game
Delay of Game0.6 / game
57 games on file for this conference's crews over the last two seasons. Officials are not published for college games. College crews are assigned by conference, so this is the profile of the conference that staffs this game.
📋Coaching Staffs
Boise State
Head coachSpencer Danielson
Fresno State
Head coachMatt Entz
Coordinators appear when the staff file lists them.
🏟️Situational Context
Kickoff
Sat Oct 10, 10:30 PM ET
Venue
Valley Children's Stadium
Location
Fresno, CA
Roof
outdoor
Conference game
Yes
Neutral site
No
Game type
regular
Officials
Not published