PROJECTED SCORE
SYR 15 – UVA 33
Total: 49 pts
High Data Confidence
Line:
SYR -10 • total 50.5
Bovada • context only, not a pick
UVA (HOME)
86%
win probability
Model cfb-sp-v1: SP+ edge, home field, rest and travel. Officials are not published in the college feed, so there is no crew adjustment.
✓Virginia holds the ratings edge over Syracuse, about 15.6 points on SP+.
✓Home field for Virginia is worth about 2.5 points.
Penalty risk
🚩Atlantic Coast crews call 11% more penalties than the FBS average (14.1 per game); the home-visitor split is even. Most common: False Start.
🚩SYR draws Offensive Holding 1.2 times a game over 4 games. Atlantic Coast crews call it 15% more often than FBS crews, so about 1.4 expected.
🚩SYR draws Defensive Holding 1.5 times a game over 4 games. Atlantic Coast crews call it 13% less often than FBS crews, so about 1.3 expected.
🚩UVA draws False Start 1.0 times a game over 5 games. Atlantic Coast crews call it 11% more often than FBS crews, so about 1.1 expected.