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College Football Intelligence — portal fit, roster lab, game intel

🎯 Game Intel
2026 • Week 6
USF
South Florida
American • Bulls
AWAY
FINAL
UTSA
UTSA
American • Roadrunners
HOME
USF 24 – UTSA 31 • FINAL
🎯Win Probability Forecast
USF
55%
win probability
PROJECTED SCORE
USF 30 – UTSA 28
Total: 58 pts
High Data Confidence
Line: USF -7 • total 49.5
DraftKings • context only, not a pick
UTSA (HOME)
45%
win probability
Model cfb-sp-v1: SP+ edge, home field, rest and travel. Officials are not published in the college feed, so there is no crew adjustment.
🧠What drives the forecast
✓South Florida holds the ratings edge over UTSA, about 4.9 points on SP+.
✓Home field for UTSA is worth about 2.5 points.
✓South Florida travels about 1,000 miles.
Penalty risk
🚩UTSA draws Offensive Holding 2.4 times a game over 5 games.
🚩USF draws False Start 2.0 times a game over 5 games.
🚩UTSA draws False Start 1.4 times a game over 5 games.
⚔️Team Profiles
StatSouth FloridaUTSA
SP+ overall rank5573
SP+ offense rank4944
SP+ defense rank6199
Pass rate47%52%
Plays per game68.971.3
Explosive play rate8.2%6.7%
Explosives allowed5.5%6.8%
Sack rate (defense)6.7%4.7%
Offense success rate48.1%47.3%
Offense PPA / play0.190.23
Defense PPA allowed0.060.07
Havoc rate (defense)15.1%12.7%
South Florida derived scheme
balancedlimits explosives
UTSA derived scheme
pass heavy
SP+ and advanced stats from CFBD for the current season; scheme tags derived from the play-by-play. Lower rank is better.
🏃Officiating Crew
AAC American officials
American crews call 7% fewer penalties than the FBS average (11.9 per game); the home-visitor split is even. Most common: False Start.
Flags / game
11.9
FBS average
12.74
vs FBS
-6.6%
Yards / game
104.0
On home team
47%
Home lean
-1.0 pts
Most called
False Start2.84 / game
Offensive Holding2.01 / game
Defensive Pass Interference1.38 / game
Defensive Offside0.78 / game
Defensive Holding0.57 / game
Personal Foul / Defense0.45 / game
96 games on file for this conference's crews over the last two seasons. Officials are not published for college games. College crews are assigned by conference, so this is the profile of the conference that staffs this game.
📋Coaching Staffs
South Florida
Head coachBrian Hartline
UTSA
Head coachJeff Traylor
Coordinators appear when the staff file lists them.
🏟️Situational Context
Kickoff
Thu Oct 8, 7:30 PM ET
Venue
Alamodome
Location
San Antonio, TX
Roof
dome
Conference game
Yes
Neutral site
No
Game type
regular
Officials
Not published