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College Football Intelligence — portal fit, roster lab, game intel

🎯 Game Intel
2026 • Week 6
M-OH
Miami (OH)
Mid-American • RedHawks
AWAY
@
MASS
UMass
Mid-American • Minutemen
HOME
🎯Win Probability Forecast
M-OH
48%
win probability
PROJECTED SCORE
M-OH 25 – MASS 26
Total: 51 pts
High Data Confidence
Line: MASS -2.5 • total 47.5
Bovada • context only, not a pick
MASS (HOME)
52%
win probability
Model cfb-sp-v1: SP+ edge, home field, rest and travel. Officials are not published in the college feed, so there is no crew adjustment.
🧠What drives the forecast
✓Miami (OH) holds the ratings edge over UMass, about 1.9 points on SP+.
✓Home field for UMass is worth about 2.5 points.
✓Miami (OH) travels about 700 miles.
Penalty risk
🚩M-OH draws False Start 1.4 times a game over 5 games.
🚩MASS draws False Start 1.2 times a game over 5 games.
🚩MASS draws Offensive Holding 1.2 times a game over 5 games.
⚔️Team Profiles
StatMiami (OH)UMass
SP+ overall rank8893
SP+ offense rank86101
SP+ defense rank9182
Pass rate48%54%
Plays per game63.063.5
Explosive play rate7.0%4.4%
Explosives allowed5.8%5.7%
Sack rate (defense)7.2%4.6%
Offense success rate41.9%46.0%
Offense PPA / play0.190.24
Defense PPA allowed0.17-0.04
Havoc rate (defense)11.6%14.5%
Miami (OH) derived scheme
balanced
UMass derived scheme
pass heavy
SP+ and advanced stats from CFBD for the current season; scheme tags derived from the play-by-play. Lower rank is better.
🏃Officiating Crew
MID-AMERICAN Mid-American officials
Mid-American crews call about as many penalties as the FBS average (12.39 per game); the home-visitor split is even. Most common: False Start.
Flags / game
12.39
FBS average
12.74
vs FBS
-2.7%
Yards / game
109.3
On home team
50%
Home lean
+1.8 pts
Most called
False Start2.52 / game
Offensive Holding2.0 / game
Defensive Pass Interference1.31 / game
Defensive Offside0.79 / game
Defensive Holding0.78 / game
Delay of Game0.65 / game
77 games on file for this conference's crews over the last two seasons. Officials are not published for college games. College crews are assigned by conference, so this is the profile of the conference that staffs this game.
📋Coaching Staffs
Miami (OH)
Head coachChuck Martin
UMass
Head coachJoe Harasymiak
Coordinators appear when the staff file lists them.
🏟️Situational Context
Kickoff
Sat Oct 10, 2:00 PM ET
Venue
Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium
Location
Amherst, MA
Roof
outdoor
Conference game
Yes
Neutral site
No
Game type
regular
Officials
Not published