PROJECTED SCORE
WAKE 27 – NCST 30
Total: 57 pts
High Data Confidence
Line:
NCST -3.5 • total 59.0
Bovada • context only, not a pick
NCST (HOME)
55%
win probability
Model cfb-sp-v1: SP+ edge, home field, rest and travel. Officials are not published in the college feed, so there is no crew adjustment.
✓Home field for NC State is worth about 2.5 points.
Penalty risk
🚩Atlantic Coast crews call 11% more penalties than the FBS average (14.1 per game); the home-visitor split is even. Most common: False Start.
🚩WAKE draws False Start 2.4 times a game over 5 games. Atlantic Coast crews call it 11% more often than FBS crews, so about 2.7 expected.
🚩NCST draws Offensive Holding 2.0 times a game over 5 games. Atlantic Coast crews call it 15% more often than FBS crews, so about 2.3 expected.
🚩WAKE draws Offensive Holding 1.4 times a game over 5 games. Atlantic Coast crews call it 15% more often than FBS crews, so about 1.6 expected.