PROJECTED SCORE
UNC 16 – PITT 31
Total: 47 pts
High Data Confidence
Line:
UNC -4 • total 47.0
Bovada • context only, not a pick
PITT (HOME)
80%
win probability
Model cfb-sp-v1: SP+ edge, home field, rest and travel. Officials are not published in the college feed, so there is no crew adjustment.
✓Pittsburgh holds the ratings edge over North Carolina, about 11.7 points on SP+.
✓Home field for Pittsburgh is worth about 2.5 points.
✓Pittsburgh's defense ranks 15th in SP+.
Penalty risk
🚩Atlantic Coast crews call 11% more penalties than the FBS average (14.1 per game); the home-visitor split is even. Most common: False Start.
🚩PITT draws Offensive Holding 2.4 times a game over 5 games. Atlantic Coast crews call it 15% more often than FBS crews, so about 2.8 expected.
🚩PITT draws False Start 1.8 times a game over 5 games. Atlantic Coast crews call it 11% more often than FBS crews, so about 2.0 expected.
🚩PITT draws Defensive Pass Interference 1.4 times a game over 5 games.