PROJECTED SCORE
AFA 35 – NIU 18
Total: 52 pts
High Data Confidence
Line:
NIU -7 • total 47.0
Bovada • context only, not a pick
NIU (HOME)
16%
win probability
Model cfb-sp-v1: SP+ edge, home field, rest and travel. Officials are not published in the college feed, so there is no crew adjustment.
✓Air Force holds the ratings edge over Northern Illinois, about 20.5 points on SP+.
✓Home field for Northern Illinois is worth about 2.5 points.
✓Northern Illinois comes in with an extra week of rest.
✓Air Force travels about 900 miles.
Penalty risk
🚩AFA draws Offensive Holding 1.5 times a game over 4 games. Mountain West crews call it 24% more often than FBS crews, so about 1.9 expected.
🚩NIU draws False Start 1.5 times a game over 4 games.
🚩NIU draws Offensive Holding 1.0 times a game over 4 games. Mountain West crews call it 24% more often than FBS crews, so about 1.2 expected.