PROJECTED SCORE
UCLA 24 – ORE 34
Total: 58 pts
High Data Confidence
Line:
UCLA -11.5 • total 59.5
DraftKings • context only, not a pick
ORE (HOME)
73%
win probability
Model cfb-sp-v1: SP+ edge, home field, rest and travel. Officials are not published in the college feed, so there is no crew adjustment.
✓Oregon holds the ratings edge over UCLA, about 7.8 points on SP+.
✓Home field for Oregon is worth about 2.5 points.
✓UCLA travels about 700 miles.
✓Oregon's offense ranks 5th in SP+.
Penalty risk
🚩Big Ten crews call 17% fewer penalties than the FBS average (10.55 per game); the home-visitor split is even. Most common: False Start.
🚩ORE draws False Start 1.5 times a game over 4 games. Big Ten crews call it 12% less often than FBS crews, so about 1.3 expected.
🚩UCLA draws False Start 1.5 times a game over 4 games. Big Ten crews call it 12% less often than FBS crews, so about 1.3 expected.
🚩UCLA draws Delay of Game 1.2 times a game over 4 games.