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🎯 Game Intel
2026 • Week 6
JVST
Jacksonville State
Conference USA • Gamecocks
AWAY
FINAL
KENN
Kennesaw State
Conference USA • Owls
HOME
JVST 27 – KENN 26 • FINAL
🎯Win Probability Forecast
JVST
66%
win probability
PROJECTED SCORE
JVST 30 – KENN 23
Total: 53 pts
High Data Confidence
Line: KENN -3 • total 48.5
DraftKings • context only, not a pick
KENN (HOME)
34%
win probability
Model cfb-sp-v1: SP+ edge, home field, rest and travel. Officials are not published in the college feed, so there is no crew adjustment.
🧠What drives the forecast
✓Jacksonville State holds the ratings edge over Kennesaw State, about 9.5 points on SP+.
✓Home field for Kennesaw State is worth about 2.5 points.
Penalty risk
🚩Conference USA crews call 9% more penalties than the FBS average (13.8 per game); the home-visitor split is even. Most common: Offensive Holding.
🚩KENN draws Offensive Holding 2.5 times a game over 4 games. Conference USA crews call it 13% more often than FBS crews, so about 2.8 expected.
🚩KENN draws False Start 1.8 times a game over 4 games. Conference USA crews call it 12% less often than FBS crews, so about 1.5 expected.
📝Recap
Jacksonville State beat Kennesaw State 27-26 on a 33-yard field goal with 0:52 left, moving the Gamecocks to 4-2 and dropping the Owls to 1-4.
Caden Creel kept the Gamecocks moving. Senior quarterback Caden Creel went 26 of 50 for 311 yards with one interception and ran 11 times for 30 yards, including a 2-yard touchdown in the second quarter. Deondre Johnson caught eight passes for 112 yards, Ronnel Johnson added 11 catches for 35 yards, and junior Jalen Likely scored on a 3-yard run late in the third. Jacksonville State converted 6 of 17 third downs and scored three touchdowns on five trips inside the Kennesaw State 30.
Kennesaw State outgained them and still lost. The Owls finished with 427 total yards to 385 and held the ball for 30:35 to 28:55. Junior quarterback Rickie Collins went 25 of 39 for 293 yards, threw a 5-yard touchdown to Javon Rogers, and ran 16 times for 61 yards and a score, while Brayden Munroe caught 10 passes for 159 yards. Collins also threw two interceptions, the first by Caleb Nix on a snap from the Jacksonville State 8 in the third quarter. Kennesaw State converted 5 of 14 third downs and scored three touchdowns on six trips inside the Jacksonville State 30.
A flag and a last interception. Trailing 26-24, Jacksonville State threw incomplete on fourth and four from its own 31 with 1:50 left, but a defensive holding call on Isaac Paul gave the Gamecocks a new set of downs and cost Kennesaw State 34.5 points of win probability. That drive ended in the 33-yard field goal. The Owls got a 9-yard completion on third and seven at their own 28, worth 24.7 points of win probability, but on second and ten from the Kennesaw State 37 with 0:20 left, Rob Billings IV intercepted a Collins pass meant for Boogie Woods III, a swing of 26.6 points of win probability toward Jacksonville State.
How it played out
Kennesaw State opened with a 17-play drive that used 8:16 and stalled at the Jacksonville State 2, settling for a 20-yard field goal on fourth and two. 3-0.
Jacksonville State answered with an 18-play drive of 7:07 that carried into the second quarter and ended in a touchdown. 7-3.
Collins capped an 8-play, 2:18 drive with a 2-yard run to put the Owls up 9-7, and Creel matched it with a 2-yard run at the end of a 7-play, 2:18 drive. 14-9.
Kennesaw State went 10 plays in 0:53 before halftime, and Collins hit Javon Rogers for a 5-yard touchdown with 0:23 left. 16-14.
The teams traded third-quarter interceptions, Tay'vion Lawson picking off Creel and Caleb Nix picking off Collins at the Jacksonville State 3. Latrelle Murrell then finished a 9-play, 3:27 drive with a 4-yard run upheld on review. 23-14.
Jalen Likely scored on a 3-yard run to end a 5-play, 1:04 drive with 0:26 left in the third. 23-21.
Jacksonville State took the lead with a 15-play, 4:39 drive ending in a 20-yard field goal, 24-23. Baron Hopson recovered a Lucas Farrington fumble, and the Owls went 9 plays in 4:03 for a 28-yard field goal with 2:15 left. 26-24.
Helped by the defensive holding call on fourth and four, Jacksonville State went 13 plays in 1:23 for a 33-yard field goal with 0:52 left, 27-26. Kennesaw State's final 6-play drive ended when Rob Billings IV intercepted Collins with 0:20 left. Final, 27-26.
Written from the play-by-play, the stat lines and the win probability record of this game on 2026-10-08. Every number traces to a play in the feed.
⚔️Team Profiles
StatJacksonville StateKennesaw State
SP+ overall rank77113
SP+ offense rank70108
SP+ defense rank87101
Pass rate40%49%
Plays per game70.570.9
Explosive play rate6.0%6.3%
Explosives allowed6.0%6.3%
Sack rate (defense)6.2%5.9%
Offense success rate47.4%45.2%
Offense PPA / play0.190.12
Defense PPA allowed0.070.15
Havoc rate (defense)15.4%12.3%
Jacksonville State derived scheme
run heavy
Kennesaw State derived scheme
balanced
SP+ and advanced stats from CFBD for the current season; scheme tags derived from the play-by-play. Lower rank is better.
🏃Officiating Crew
CONFERENCE-USA Conference USA officials
Conference USA crews call 10% more penalties than the FBS average (14.06 per game); the home-visitor split is even. Most common: Offensive Holding.
Flags / game
14.06
FBS average
12.74
vs FBS
+10%
Yards / game
129.2
On home team
46%
Home lean
-2.0 pts
Most called
Offensive Holding2.48 / game
False Start2.34 / game
Defensive Pass Interference1.63 / game
Defensive Holding1.06 / game
Defensive Offside0.78 / game
Delay of Game0.65 / game
65 games on file for this conference's crews over the last two seasons. Officials are not published for college games. College crews are assigned by conference, so this is the profile of the conference that staffs this game.
📋Coaching Staffs
Jacksonville State
Head coachCharles Kelly
Kennesaw State
Head coachJerry Mack
Coordinators appear when the staff file lists them.
🏟️Situational Context
Kickoff
Wed Oct 7, 7:00 PM ET
Venue
Fifth Third Stadium
Location
Kennesaw, GA
Roof
outdoor
Conference game
Yes
Neutral site
No
Game type
regular
Officials
Not published