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College Football Intelligence — portal fit, roster lab, game intel

🎯 Game Intel
2026 • Week 6
USC
USC
Big Ten • Trojans
AWAY
@
PSU
Penn State
Big Ten • Nittany Lions
HOME
🎯Win Probability Forecast
USC
44%
win probability
PROJECTED SCORE
USC 27 – PSU 30
Total: 57 pts
High Data Confidence
Line: USC -1.5 • total 54.5
DraftKings • context only, not a pick
PSU (HOME)
56%
win probability
Model cfb-sp-v1: SP+ edge, home field, rest and travel. Officials are not published in the college feed, so there is no crew adjustment.
🧠What drives the forecast
✓Home field for Penn State is worth about 2.5 points.
✓USC travels about 2,200 miles.
✓Penn State's defense ranks 12th in SP+.
✓USC's offense ranks 3rd in SP+.
Penalty risk
🚩Big Ten crews call 17% fewer penalties than the FBS average (10.55 per game); the home-visitor split is even. Most common: False Start.
⚔️Team Profiles
StatUSCPenn State
SP+ overall rank1315
SP+ offense rank328
SP+ defense rank4912
Pass rate52%46%
Plays per game69.264.7
Explosive play rate8.8%6.1%
Explosives allowed6.2%5.6%
Sack rate (defense)7.1%7.3%
Offense success rate51.9%42.4%
Offense PPA / play0.290.18
Defense PPA allowed0.16-0.02
Havoc rate (defense)12.1%18.0%
USC derived scheme
explosivepass heavy
Penn State derived scheme
balanced
SP+ and advanced stats from CFBD for the current season; scheme tags derived from the play-by-play. Lower rank is better.
🏃Officiating Crew
BIG-TEN Big Ten officials
Big Ten crews call 17% fewer penalties than the FBS average (10.55 per game); the home-visitor split is even. Most common: False Start.
Flags / game
10.55
FBS average
12.74
vs FBS
-17%
Yards / game
91.8
On home team
49%
Home lean
+1.1 pts
Most called
False Start2.29 / game
Offensive Holding1.49 / game
Defensive Pass Interference1.26 / game
Defensive Offside0.68 / game
Defensive Holding0.53 / game
Delay of Game0.53 / game
160 games on file for this conference's crews over the last two seasons. Officials are not published for college games. College crews are assigned by conference, so this is the profile of the conference that staffs this game.
📋Coaching Staffs
USC
Head coachLincoln Riley
Penn State
Head coachMatt Campbell
Coordinators appear when the staff file lists them.
🏟️Situational Context
Kickoff
Sat Oct 10, 7:30 PM ET
Venue
West Shore Home Field at Beaver Stadium
Location
University Park, PA
Roof
outdoor
Conference game
Yes
Neutral site
No
Game type
regular
Officials
Not published