✓Florida International holds the ratings edge over New Mexico State, about 10.2 points on SP+.
✓Home field for Florida International is worth about 2.5 points.
✓Florida International comes in with an extra week of rest.
✓New Mexico State travels about 1,700 miles.
Penalty risk
🚩Conference USA crews call 9% more penalties than the FBS average (13.8 per game); the home-visitor split is even. Most common: Offensive Holding.
🚩FIU draws Offensive Holding 2.2 times a game over 4 games. Conference USA crews call it 13% more often than FBS crews, so about 2.5 expected.
🚩FIU draws False Start 2.2 times a game over 4 games. Conference USA crews call it 12% less often than FBS crews, so about 2.0 expected.
🚩NMSU draws False Start 2.0 times a game over 5 games. Conference USA crews call it 12% less often than FBS crews, so about 1.8 expected.
Florida International beat New Mexico State 22-3 to move to 3-2, building the win on turnovers, a ball-control running game and five field goals.
A ground game that held the ball. Sophomore Devonte Lyons led Florida International with 15 carries for 78 yards, and sophomore Anthony Carrie ran 16 times for 37 yards and the Panthers' only touchdown. Junior quarterback JJ Kohl went 12 for 21 for 115 yards with one interception. Florida International ran 45 times for 100 yards, held the ball for 37:30 to New Mexico State's 21:24, and converted 6 of 16 third downs.
Turnovers turned into points. The Panthers took the ball away three times and scored after every one. Wesley Miller's first-quarter interception of Adam Damante at midfield swung 9.8 points of win probability toward Florida International and set up the touchdown drive. Germaine Carter recovered a Trey Hedden fumble at the New Mexico State 7, and Demetrius Hill intercepted Hedden at the New Mexico State 45, each leading to a field goal.
Field goals instead of touchdowns. Florida International reached the New Mexico State 30 or closer on six drives but scored one touchdown in those six trips. Its kicker made field goals of 40, 52, 33, 21 and 48 yards to keep the scoreboard moving. Even a first and goal at the New Mexico State 7 after the fumble ended in a 21-yard field goal.
New Mexico State outgained but stalled. The Aggies finished with more total yards, 230 to 220, but got inside the Florida International 30 only once and kicked a field goal there. James Jones ran 16 times for 89 yards and had 108 yards from scrimmage. Senior quarterback Adam Damante went 10 for 23 for 104 yards with an interception, and Terrione Graves caught two passes for 39 yards. New Mexico State converted 3 of 12 third downs and 1 of 3 fourth downs.
How it played out
Wesley Miller intercepted Adam Damante with 7:13 left in the first quarter, and Florida International went 10 plays in 5:31 from its own 47, Anthony Carrie scoring from 1 yard out before the extra point. 7-0.
New Mexico State answered with a 14-play drive over 6:19, helped by Damante's 26-yard completion to Terrione Graves on third and seven, and kicked a 26-yard field goal with 10:16 left in the second quarter. 7-3.
Florida International used 7:43 on a 15-play drive that included JJ Kohl's 19-yard throw to Greg Gaines III on third and 14, worth 6.5 points of win probability, and ended with a 40-yard field goal at 2:32 of the second quarter. 10-3.
The Panthers opened the third quarter with an 11-play, 5:07 drive capped by a 52-yard field goal, then added a 33-yarder after a nine-play drive that took 4:11. 16-3.
Trey Hedden was sacked and fumbled with 11:59 left in the fourth quarter, Germaine Carter recovering at the New Mexico State 7, and four plays later Florida International kicked a 21-yard field goal. 19-3.
Javon Gillespie intercepted Kohl at the New Mexico State 8 with 7:43 left, but Demetrius Hill picked off Hedden at 4:33, and the Panthers went seven plays in 3:20 for a 48-yard field goal with 1:11 left. 22-3.
New Mexico State's last possession ran seven plays in 66 seconds and ended when Lamont Green Jr. sacked Damante on second and two at the Florida International 44 with one second left. 22-3 final.
Written from the play-by-play, the stat lines and the win probability record of this game on 2026-10-08. Every number traces to a play in the feed.