PROJECTED SCORE
ODU 22 – APP 29
Total: 50 pts
High Data Confidence
Line:
ODU -9.5 • total 48.0
Bovada • context only, not a pick
APP (HOME)
66%
win probability
Model cfb-sp-v1: SP+ edge, home field, rest and travel. Officials are not published in the college feed, so there is no crew adjustment.
✓Appalachian State holds the ratings edge over Old Dominion, about 3.5 points on SP+.
✓Home field for Appalachian State is worth about 2.5 points.
✓Appalachian State comes in with an extra week of rest.
Penalty risk
🚩Sun Belt crews call 8% more penalties than the FBS average (13.8 per game); the home-visitor split is even. Most common: False Start.
🚩APP draws False Start 2.8 times a game over 4 games.
🚩ODU draws Offensive Holding 1.2 times a game over 5 games. Sun Belt crews call it 15% more often than FBS crews, so about 1.4 expected.
🚩ODU draws False Start 1.2 times a game over 5 games.