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College Football Intelligence — portal fit, roster lab, game intel

🎯 Game Intel
2026 • Week 6
ISU
Iowa State
Big 12 • Cyclones
AWAY
@
BYU
BYU
Big 12 • Cougars
HOME
🎯Win Probability Forecast
ISU
18%
win probability
PROJECTED SCORE
ISU 17 – BYU 32
Total: 49 pts
High Data Confidence
Line: ISU -10.5 • total 46.5
DraftKings • context only, not a pick
BYU (HOME)
82%
win probability
Model cfb-sp-v1: SP+ edge, home field, rest and travel. Officials are not published in the college feed, so there is no crew adjustment.
🧠What drives the forecast
✓BYU holds the ratings edge over Iowa State, about 12.9 points on SP+.
✓Home field for BYU is worth about 2.5 points.
✓Iowa State travels about 900 miles.
Penalty risk
🚩ISU draws Offensive Holding 2.0 times a game over 5 games.
🚩BYU draws False Start 1.8 times a game over 4 games.
🚩BYU draws Offensive Holding 1.5 times a game over 4 games.
⚔️Team Profiles
StatIowa StateBYU
SP+ overall rank5817
SP+ offense rank8624
SP+ defense rank3921
Pass rate45%44%
Plays per game69.667.9
Explosive play rate7.0%5.8%
Explosives allowed6.0%5.3%
Sack rate (defense)4.3%5.9%
Offense success rate41.1%52.8%
Offense PPA / play0.170.32
Defense PPA allowed0.05-0.07
Havoc rate (defense)17.6%18.0%
Iowa State derived scheme
balanced
BYU derived scheme
limits explosivesrun heavy
SP+ and advanced stats from CFBD for the current season; scheme tags derived from the play-by-play. Lower rank is better.
🏃Officiating Crew
BIG-12 Big 12 officials
Big 12 crews call 5% fewer penalties than the FBS average (12.08 per game); the home-visitor split is even. Most common: False Start.
Flags / game
12.08
FBS average
12.74
vs FBS
-5.2%
Yards / game
105.1
On home team
50%
Home lean
+1.3 pts
Most called
False Start2.68 / game
Offensive Holding2.18 / game
Defensive Pass Interference1.52 / game
Defensive Offside0.65 / game
Defensive Holding0.58 / game
Delay of Game0.55 / game
124 games on file for this conference's crews over the last two seasons. Officials are not published for college games. College crews are assigned by conference, so this is the profile of the conference that staffs this game.
📋Coaching Staffs
Iowa State
Head coachJimmy Rogers
BYU
Head coachKalani Sitake
Coordinators appear when the staff file lists them.
🏟️Situational Context
Kickoff
Fri Oct 9, 10:15 PM ET
Venue
LaVell Edwards Stadium
Location
Provo, UT
Roof
outdoor
Conference game
Yes
Neutral site
No
Game type
regular
Officials
Not published