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College Football Intelligence — portal fit, roster lab, game intel

🎯 Game Intel
2026 • Week 6
CHAR
Charlotte
American • 49ers
AWAY
@
UNT
North Texas
American • Mean Green
HOME
🎯Win Probability Forecast
CHAR
8%
win probability
PROJECTED SCORE
CHAR 17 – UNT 41
Total: 58 pts
High Data Confidence
Line: CHAR -28 • total 58.0
Bovada • context only, not a pick
UNT (HOME)
92%
win probability
Model cfb-sp-v1: SP+ edge, home field, rest and travel. Officials are not published in the college feed, so there is no crew adjustment.
🧠What drives the forecast
✓North Texas holds the ratings edge over Charlotte, about 21.6 points on SP+.
✓Home field for North Texas is worth about 2.5 points.
✓Charlotte travels about 900 miles.
Penalty risk
🚩CHAR draws False Start 2.4 times a game over 5 games.
🚩UNT draws False Start 2.2 times a game over 5 games.
🚩UNT draws Offensive Holding 1.8 times a game over 5 games.
⚔️Team Profiles
StatCharlotteNorth Texas
SP+ overall rank13791
SP+ offense rank13747
SP+ defense rank137120
Pass rate56%51%
Plays per game62.174.4
Explosive play rate5.4%8.7%
Explosives allowed6.2%5.1%
Sack rate (defense)3.7%5.9%
Offense success rate35.2%48.0%
Offense PPA / play-0.090.28
Defense PPA allowed0.210.13
Havoc rate (defense)12.0%15.5%
Charlotte derived scheme
pass heavy
North Texas derived scheme
balancedexplosivelimits explosivesup tempo
SP+ and advanced stats from CFBD for the current season; scheme tags derived from the play-by-play. Lower rank is better.
🏃Officiating Crew
AAC American officials
American crews call 7% fewer penalties than the FBS average (11.9 per game); the home-visitor split is even. Most common: False Start.
Flags / game
11.9
FBS average
12.74
vs FBS
-6.6%
Yards / game
104.0
On home team
47%
Home lean
-1.0 pts
Most called
False Start2.84 / game
Offensive Holding2.01 / game
Defensive Pass Interference1.38 / game
Defensive Offside0.78 / game
Defensive Holding0.57 / game
Personal Foul / Defense0.45 / game
96 games on file for this conference's crews over the last two seasons. Officials are not published for college games. College crews are assigned by conference, so this is the profile of the conference that staffs this game.
📋Coaching Staffs
Charlotte
Head coachTim Albin
North Texas
Head coachNeal Brown
Coordinators appear when the staff file lists them.
🏟️Situational Context
Kickoff
Sat Oct 10, 3:30 PM ET
Venue
DATCU Stadium
Location
Denton, TX
Roof
outdoor
Conference game
Yes
Neutral site
No
Game type
regular
Officials
Not published