PROJECTED SCORE
JMU 34 – GASO 18
Total: 52 pts
High Data Confidence
Line:
GASO -7.5 • total 51.5
DraftKings • context only, not a pick
GASO (HOME)
17%
win probability
Model cfb-sp-v1: SP+ edge, home field, rest and travel. Officials are not published in the college feed, so there is no crew adjustment.
✓James Madison holds the ratings edge over Georgia Southern, about 18.5 points on SP+.
✓Home field for Georgia Southern is worth about 2.5 points.
Penalty risk
🚩Sun Belt crews call 8% more penalties than the FBS average (13.8 per game); the home-visitor split is even. Most common: False Start.
🚩JMU draws Offensive Holding 1.4 times a game over 5 games. Sun Belt crews call it 15% more often than FBS crews, so about 1.6 expected.
🚩GASO draws Offensive Holding 1.2 times a game over 5 games. Sun Belt crews call it 15% more often than FBS crews, so about 1.4 expected.
🚩GASO draws Defensive Pass Interference 1.4 times a game over 5 games.