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College Football Intelligence — portal fit, roster lab, game intel

🎯 Game Intel
2026 • Week 6
HAW
Hawai'i
Mountain West • Rainbow Warriors
AWAY
@
ASU
Arizona State
Big 12 • Sun Devils
HOME
🎯Win Probability Forecast
HAW
13%
win probability
PROJECTED SCORE
HAW 16 – ASU 35
Total: 50 pts
High Data Confidence
Line: HAW -20.5 • total 50.5
DraftKings • context only, not a pick
ASU (HOME)
87%
win probability
Model cfb-sp-v1: SP+ edge, home field, rest and travel. Officials are not published in the college feed, so there is no crew adjustment.
🧠What drives the forecast
✓Arizona State holds the ratings edge over Hawai'i, about 15.2 points on SP+.
✓Home field for Arizona State is worth about 2.5 points.
✓Hawai'i travels about 2,900 miles.
Penalty risk
🚩HAW draws False Start 2.6 times a game over 5 games.
🚩HAW draws Offensive Holding 2.2 times a game over 5 games.
🚩HAW draws Defensive Pass Interference 1.0 times a game over 5 games. Big 12 (home conference assigns) crews call it 14% more often than FBS crews, so about 1.1 expected.
⚔️Team Profiles
StatHawai'iArizona State
SP+ overall rank11460
SP+ offense rank11173
SP+ defense rank10846
Pass rate64%51%
Plays per game72.873.4
Explosive play rate5.2%6.9%
Explosives allowed7.0%5.6%
Sack rate (defense)7.1%6.3%
Offense success rate39.0%41.7%
Offense PPA / play0.040.02
Defense PPA allowed0.200.14
Havoc rate (defense)13.3%13.7%
Hawai'i derived scheme
early down aggressivepass heavyup tempo
Arizona State derived scheme
balancedup tempo
SP+ and advanced stats from CFBD for the current season; scheme tags derived from the play-by-play. Lower rank is better.
🏃Officiating Crew
BIG-12 Big 12 officials (home conference assigns)
Big 12 crews call 5% fewer penalties than the FBS average (12.08 per game); the home-visitor split is even. Most common: False Start.
Flags / game
12.08
FBS average
12.74
vs FBS
-5.2%
Yards / game
105.1
On home team
50%
Home lean
+1.3 pts
Most called
False Start2.68 / game
Offensive Holding2.18 / game
Defensive Pass Interference1.52 / game
Defensive Offside0.65 / game
Defensive Holding0.58 / game
Delay of Game0.55 / game
124 games on file for this conference's crews over the last two seasons. Officials are not published for college games. College crews are assigned by conference, so this is the profile of the conference that staffs this game.
📋Coaching Staffs
Hawai'i
Head coachTimmy Chang
Arizona State
Head coachKenny Dillingham
Coordinators appear when the staff file lists them.
🏟️Situational Context
Kickoff
Sat Oct 10, 10:30 PM ET
Venue
Mountain America Stadium
Location
Tempe, AZ
Roof
outdoor
Conference game
No
Neutral site
No
Game type
regular
Officials
Not published