PROJECTED SCORE
DUKE 31 – GT 23
Total: 54 pts
High Data Confidence
Line:
GT -6.5 • total 44.0
Bovada • context only, not a pick
GT (HOME)
32%
win probability
Model cfb-sp-v1: SP+ edge, home field, rest and travel. Officials are not published in the college feed, so there is no crew adjustment.
✓Duke holds the ratings edge over Georgia Tech, about 10.3 points on SP+.
✓Home field for Georgia Tech is worth about 2.5 points.
Penalty risk
🚩Atlantic Coast crews call 11% more penalties than the FBS average (14.1 per game); the home-visitor split is even. Most common: False Start.
🚩GT draws Offensive Holding 2.5 times a game over 4 games. Atlantic Coast crews call it 15% more often than FBS crews, so about 2.9 expected.
🚩DUKE draws False Start 2.5 times a game over 4 games. Atlantic Coast crews call it 11% more often than FBS crews, so about 2.8 expected.
🚩DUKE draws Offensive Holding 2.0 times a game over 4 games. Atlantic Coast crews call it 15% more often than FBS crews, so about 2.3 expected.