PROJECTED SCORE
CCAR 29 – MRSH 31
Total: 60 pts
High Data Confidence
Line:
CCAR -4 • total 59.0
Bovada • context only, not a pick
MRSH (HOME)
53%
win probability
Model cfb-sp-v1: SP+ edge, home field, rest and travel. Officials are not published in the college feed, so there is no crew adjustment.
✓Coastal Carolina holds the ratings edge over Marshall, about 1.1 points on SP+.
✓Home field for Marshall is worth about 2.5 points.
Penalty risk
🚩Sun Belt crews call 8% more penalties than the FBS average (13.8 per game); the home-visitor split is even. Most common: False Start.
🚩CCAR draws Offensive Holding 2.2 times a game over 5 games. Sun Belt crews call it 15% more often than FBS crews, so about 2.5 expected.
🚩CCAR draws False Start 1.8 times a game over 5 games.
🚩MRSH draws False Start 1.6 times a game over 5 games.