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College Football Intelligence — portal fit, roster lab, game intel

🎯 Game Intel
2026 • Week 6
ILL
Illinois
Big Ten • Fighting Illini
AWAY
@
MSU
Michigan State
Big Ten • Spartans
HOME
🎯Win Probability Forecast
ILL
63%
win probability
PROJECTED SCORE
ILL 30 – MSU 25
Total: 55 pts
High Data Confidence
Line: MSU -2.5 • total 48.0
Bovada • context only, not a pick
MSU (HOME)
37%
win probability
Model cfb-sp-v1: SP+ edge, home field, rest and travel. Officials are not published in the college feed, so there is no crew adjustment.
🧠What drives the forecast
✓Illinois holds the ratings edge over Michigan State, about 8.2 points on SP+.
✓Home field for Michigan State is worth about 2.5 points.
Penalty risk
🚩Big Ten crews call 17% fewer penalties than the FBS average (10.55 per game); the home-visitor split is even. Most common: False Start.
🚩ILL draws Offensive Holding 2.0 times a game over 5 games. Big Ten crews call it 31% less often than FBS crews, so about 1.4 expected.
⚔️Team Profiles
StatIllinoisMichigan State
SP+ overall rank4167
SP+ offense rank2480
SP+ defense rank6958
Pass rate51%52%
Plays per game65.767.4
Explosive play rate6.5%5.1%
Explosives allowed4.7%6.7%
Sack rate (defense)5.1%5.6%
Offense success rate49.7%42.6%
Offense PPA / play0.24-0.05
Defense PPA allowed0.210.18
Havoc rate (defense)12.8%13.9%
Illinois derived scheme
balancedlimits explosives
Michigan State derived scheme
balanced
SP+ and advanced stats from CFBD for the current season; scheme tags derived from the play-by-play. Lower rank is better.
🏃Officiating Crew
BIG-TEN Big Ten officials
Big Ten crews call 17% fewer penalties than the FBS average (10.55 per game); the home-visitor split is even. Most common: False Start.
Flags / game
10.55
FBS average
12.74
vs FBS
-17%
Yards / game
91.8
On home team
49%
Home lean
+1.1 pts
Most called
False Start2.29 / game
Offensive Holding1.49 / game
Defensive Pass Interference1.26 / game
Defensive Offside0.68 / game
Defensive Holding0.53 / game
Delay of Game0.53 / game
160 games on file for this conference's crews over the last two seasons. Officials are not published for college games. College crews are assigned by conference, so this is the profile of the conference that staffs this game.
📋Coaching Staffs
Illinois
Head coachBret Bielema
Michigan State
Head coachPat Fitzgerald
Coordinators appear when the staff file lists them.
🏟️Situational Context
Kickoff
Sat Oct 10, 3:30 PM ET
Venue
Spartan Stadium
Location
East Lansing, MI
Roof
outdoor
Conference game
Yes
Neutral site
No
Game type
regular
Officials
Not published