ChallengeFlag

College Football Intelligence — portal fit, roster lab, game intel

🎯 Game Intel
2026 • Week 6
HOU
Houston
Big 12 • Cougars
AWAY
@
KSU
Kansas State
Big 12 • Wildcats
HOME
🎯Win Probability Forecast
HOU
38%
win probability
PROJECTED SCORE
HOU 26 – KSU 32
Total: 58 pts
High Data Confidence
Line: HOU -2.5 • total 55.0
Bovada • context only, not a pick
KSU (HOME)
62%
win probability
Model cfb-sp-v1: SP+ edge, home field, rest and travel. Officials are not published in the college feed, so there is no crew adjustment.
🧠What drives the forecast
✓Kansas State holds the ratings edge over Houston, about 1.9 points on SP+.
✓Home field for Kansas State is worth about 2.5 points.
✓Kansas State comes in with an extra week of rest.
✓Houston travels about 700 miles.
✓Houston's offense ranks 15th in SP+.
Penalty risk
🚩HOU draws False Start 2.0 times a game over 5 games.
🚩HOU draws Offensive Holding 1.6 times a game over 5 games.
⚔️Team Profiles
StatHoustonKansas State
SP+ overall rank2923
SP+ offense rank1521
SP+ defense rank5334
Pass rate44%48%
Plays per game74.166.2
Explosive play rate6.2%7.0%
Explosives allowed6.2%6.0%
Sack rate (defense)5.8%8.1%
Offense success rate56.1%51.4%
Offense PPA / play0.350.31
Defense PPA allowed0.09-0.04
Havoc rate (defense)21.2%23.8%
Houston derived scheme
run heavyup tempo
Kansas State derived scheme
balancedpressure defense
SP+ and advanced stats from CFBD for the current season; scheme tags derived from the play-by-play. Lower rank is better.
🏃Officiating Crew
BIG-12 Big 12 officials
Big 12 crews call 5% fewer penalties than the FBS average (12.08 per game); the home-visitor split is even. Most common: False Start.
Flags / game
12.08
FBS average
12.74
vs FBS
-5.2%
Yards / game
105.1
On home team
50%
Home lean
+1.3 pts
Most called
False Start2.68 / game
Offensive Holding2.18 / game
Defensive Pass Interference1.52 / game
Defensive Offside0.65 / game
Defensive Holding0.58 / game
Delay of Game0.55 / game
124 games on file for this conference's crews over the last two seasons. Officials are not published for college games. College crews are assigned by conference, so this is the profile of the conference that staffs this game.
📋Coaching Staffs
Houston
Head coachWillie Fritz
Kansas State
Head coachCollin Klein
Coordinators appear when the staff file lists them.
🏟️Situational Context
Kickoff
Sat Oct 10, 3:30 PM ET
Venue
Bill Snyder Family Stadium
Location
Manhattan, KS
Roof
outdoor
Conference game
Yes
Neutral site
No
Game type
regular
Officials
Not published