PROJECTED SCORE
IOWA 23 – WASH 23
Total: 46 pts
High Data Confidence
Line:
IOWA -3 • total 41.5
Bovada • context only, not a pick
WASH (HOME)
51%
win probability
Model cfb-sp-v1: SP+ edge, home field, rest and travel. Officials are not published in the college feed, so there is no crew adjustment.
✓Iowa holds the ratings edge over Washington, about 2.7 points on SP+.
✓Home field for Washington is worth about 2.5 points.
✓Iowa travels about 1,600 miles.
✓Iowa's defense ranks 10th in SP+.
Penalty risk
🚩Big Ten crews call 17% fewer penalties than the FBS average (10.55 per game); the home-visitor split is even. Most common: False Start.
🚩IOWA draws False Start 2.2 times a game over 5 games. Big Ten crews call it 12% less often than FBS crews, so about 1.9 expected.
🚩WASH draws False Start 1.2 times a game over 5 games. Big Ten crews call it 12% less often than FBS crews, so about 1.1 expected.