PROJECTED SCORE
USA 26 – ARST 34
Total: 59 pts
High Data Confidence
Line:
USA -3 • total 60.5
DraftKings • context only, not a pick
ARST (HOME)
69%
win probability
Model cfb-sp-v1: SP+ edge, home field, rest and travel. Officials are not published in the college feed, so there is no crew adjustment.
✓Arkansas State holds the ratings edge over South Alabama, about 5.9 points on SP+.
✓Home field for Arkansas State is worth about 2.5 points.
Penalty risk
🚩Sun Belt crews call 9% more penalties than the FBS average (13.8 per game); the home-visitor split is even. Most common: False Start.
🚩USA draws Offensive Holding 1.8 times a game over 5 games. Sun Belt crews call it 15% more often than FBS crews, so about 2.1 expected.
🚩ARST draws Offensive Holding 1.2 times a game over 5 games. Sun Belt crews call it 15% more often than FBS crews, so about 1.4 expected.
🚩USA draws False Start 1.2 times a game over 5 games.