PROJECTED SCORE
VT 32 – CAL 20
Total: 52 pts
High Data Confidence
Line:
CAL -10 • total 53.5
Bovada • context only, not a pick
CAL (HOME)
24%
win probability
Model cfb-sp-v1: SP+ edge, home field, rest and travel. Officials are not published in the college feed, so there is no crew adjustment.
✓Virginia Tech holds the ratings edge over California, about 15.5 points on SP+.
✓Home field for California is worth about 2.5 points.
✓Virginia Tech travels about 2,300 miles.
Penalty risk
🚩Atlantic Coast crews call 11% more penalties than the FBS average (14.1 per game); the home-visitor split is even. Most common: False Start.
🚩CAL draws Offensive Holding 2.0 times a game over 5 games. Atlantic Coast crews call it 15% more often than FBS crews, so about 2.3 expected.
🚩VT draws Offensive Holding 1.2 times a game over 5 games. Atlantic Coast crews call it 15% more often than FBS crews, so about 1.4 expected.
🚩VT draws False Start 1.2 times a game over 5 games. Atlantic Coast crews call it 11% more often than FBS crews, so about 1.3 expected.