ChallengeFlag

College Football Intelligence — portal fit, roster lab, game intel

🎯 Game Intel
2026 • Week 6
SDSU
San Diego State
Pac-12 • Aztecs
AWAY
@
ORST
Oregon State
Pac-12 • Beavers
HOME
🎯Win Probability Forecast
SDSU
25%
win probability
PROJECTED SCORE
SDSU 19 – ORST 31
Total: 50 pts
High Data Confidence
Line: SDSU -15.5 • total 53.0
Bovada • context only, not a pick
ORST (HOME)
75%
win probability
Model cfb-sp-v1: SP+ edge, home field, rest and travel. Officials are not published in the college feed, so there is no crew adjustment.
🧠What drives the forecast
✓Oregon State holds the ratings edge over San Diego State, about 9.0 points on SP+.
✓Home field for Oregon State is worth about 2.5 points.
✓San Diego State travels about 900 miles.
Penalty risk
🚩SDSU draws False Start 1.6 times a game over 5 games.
🚩SDSU draws Offensive Holding 1.4 times a game over 5 games.
🚩ORST draws False Start 1.0 times a game over 5 games.
⚔️Team Profiles
StatSan Diego StateOregon State
SP+ overall rank10065
SP+ offense rank11067
SP+ defense rank8656
Pass rate40%57%
Plays per game67.171.8
Explosive play rate5.2%7.0%
Explosives allowed4.6%7.4%
Sack rate (defense)6.6%5.3%
Offense success rate34.9%48.2%
Offense PPA / play-0.090.30
Defense PPA allowed0.090.09
Havoc rate (defense)12.6%16.9%
San Diego State derived scheme
limits explosivesrun heavy
Oregon State derived scheme
early down aggressivepass heavy
SP+ and advanced stats from CFBD for the current season; scheme tags derived from the play-by-play. Lower rank is better.
🏃Officiating Crew
PAC-12 Pac-12 officials
Pac-12 crews call 5% more penalties than the FBS average (13.39 per game); the home-visitor split is even. Most common: False Start.
Flags / game
13.39
FBS average
12.74
vs FBS
+5.1%
Yards / game
119.2
On home team
49%
Home lean
+0.9 pts
Most called
False Start2.77 / game
Offensive Holding2.39 / game
Defensive Pass Interference1.14 / game
Defensive Holding0.89 / game
Defensive Offside0.84 / game
Delay of Game0.6 / game
57 games on file for this conference's crews over the last two seasons. Officials are not published for college games. College crews are assigned by conference, so this is the profile of the conference that staffs this game.
📋Coaching Staffs
San Diego State
Head coachSean Lewis
Oregon State
Head coachJaMarcus Shephard
Coordinators appear when the staff file lists them.
🏟️Situational Context
Kickoff
Sat Oct 10, 6:00 PM ET
Venue
Reser Stadium
Location
Corvallis, OR
Roof
outdoor
Conference game
Yes
Neutral site
No
Game type
regular
Officials
Not published