PROJECTED SCORE
NEV 34 – UTEP 18
Total: 52 pts
High Data Confidence
Line:
UTEP -9.5 • total 49.5
Bovada • context only, not a pick
UTEP (HOME)
18%
win probability
Model cfb-sp-v1: SP+ edge, home field, rest and travel. Officials are not published in the college feed, so there is no crew adjustment.
✓Nevada holds the ratings edge over UTEP, about 17.5 points on SP+.
✓Home field for UTEP is worth about 2.5 points.
✓Nevada comes in with an extra week of rest.
✓Nevada travels about 900 miles.
Penalty risk
🚩NEV draws False Start 1.8 times a game over 4 games.
🚩UTEP draws Personal Foul / Defense 1.0 times a game over 5 games. Mountain West crews call it 43% more often than FBS crews, so about 1.4 expected.
🚩UTEP draws Offensive Holding 1.0 times a game over 5 games. Mountain West crews call it 24% more often than FBS crews, so about 1.2 expected.