ChallengeFlag

College Football Intelligence — portal fit, roster lab, game intel

🎯 Game Intel
2026 • Week 6
TEX
Texas
Southeastern • Longhorns
AWAY
@
OKLA
Oklahoma
Southeastern • Sooners
HOME
🎯Win Probability Forecast
TEX
71%
win probability
PROJECTED SCORE
TEX 27 – OKLA 18
Total: 44 pts
High Data Confidence
Line: OKLA -7.5 • total 39.5
DraftKings • context only, not a pick
OKLA (HOME)
29%
win probability
Model cfb-sp-v1: SP+ edge, home field, rest and travel. Officials are not published in the college feed, so there is no crew adjustment.
🧠What drives the forecast
✓Texas holds the ratings edge over Oklahoma, about 9.6 points on SP+.
✓Oklahoma's defense ranks 5th in SP+.
✓Texas's defense ranks 5th in SP+.
Penalty risk
🚩OKLA draws Offensive Holding 1.2 times a game over 4 games.
🚩OKLA draws False Start 1.2 times a game over 4 games.
🚩TEX draws Illegal Forward Pass 0.8 times a game over 4 games. Southeastern crews call it 60% more often than FBS crews, so about 1.2 expected.
⚔️Team Profiles
StatTexasOklahoma
SP+ overall rank727
SP+ offense rank1675
SP+ defense rank55
Pass rate51%53%
Plays per game69.467.6
Explosive play rate5.6%6.1%
Explosives allowed5.2%5.6%
Sack rate (defense)8.7%10.8%
Offense success rate45.5%39.2%
Offense PPA / play0.11-0.05
Defense PPA allowed-0.06-0.18
Havoc rate (defense)20.6%21.6%
Texas derived scheme
balancedlimits explosivespressure defense
Oklahoma derived scheme
pass heavypressure defense
SP+ and advanced stats from CFBD for the current season; scheme tags derived from the play-by-play. Lower rank is better.
🏃Officiating Crew
SEC Southeastern officials
Southeastern crews call about as many penalties as the FBS average (13.35 per game); the home-visitor split is even. Most common: False Start.
Flags / game
13.35
FBS average
12.74
vs FBS
+4.8%
Yards / game
115.3
On home team
48%
Home lean
-0.3 pts
Most called
False Start2.6 / game
Offensive Holding2.19 / game
Defensive Pass Interference1.3 / game
Defensive Offside0.95 / game
Defensive Holding0.8 / game
Delay of Game0.66 / game
145 games on file for this conference's crews over the last two seasons. Officials are not published for college games. College crews are assigned by conference, so this is the profile of the conference that staffs this game.
📋Coaching Staffs
Texas
Head coachSteve Sarkisian
Oklahoma
Head coachBrent Venables
Coordinators appear when the staff file lists them.
🏟️Situational Context
Kickoff
Sat Oct 10, 3:30 PM ET
Venue
Cotton Bowl
Location
Dallas, TX
Roof
outdoor
Conference game
Yes
Neutral site
Yes
Game type
regular
Officials
Not published