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College Football Intelligence — portal fit, roster lab, game intel

🎯 Game Intel
2026 • Week 6
RICE
Rice
American • Owls
AWAY
@
ECU
East Carolina
American • Pirates
HOME
🎯Win Probability Forecast
RICE
17%
win probability
PROJECTED SCORE
RICE 17 – ECU 34
Total: 51 pts
High Data Confidence
Line: RICE -10 • total 47.0
Bovada • context only, not a pick
ECU (HOME)
83%
win probability
Model cfb-sp-v1: SP+ edge, home field, rest and travel. Officials are not published in the college feed, so there is no crew adjustment.
🧠What drives the forecast
✓East Carolina holds the ratings edge over Rice, about 12.3 points on SP+.
✓Home field for East Carolina is worth about 2.5 points.
✓East Carolina comes in with an extra week of rest.
✓Rice travels about 1,100 miles.
Penalty risk
🚩ECU draws False Start 2.0 times a game over 4 games.
🚩RICE draws False Start 1.0 times a game over 5 games.
⚔️Team Profiles
StatRiceEast Carolina
SP+ overall rank11979
SP+ offense rank11992
SP+ defense rank11669
Pass rate28%47%
Plays per game66.476.0
Explosive play rate4.6%6.0%
Explosives allowed7.1%5.2%
Sack rate (defense)6.1%7.0%
Offense success rate42.1%40.1%
Offense PPA / play0.030.06
Defense PPA allowed0.12-0.02
Havoc rate (defense)14.1%19.4%
Rice derived scheme
run heavy
East Carolina derived scheme
balancedlimits explosivesup tempo
SP+ and advanced stats from CFBD for the current season; scheme tags derived from the play-by-play. Lower rank is better.
🏃Officiating Crew
AAC American officials
American crews call 7% fewer penalties than the FBS average (11.9 per game); the home-visitor split is even. Most common: False Start.
Flags / game
11.9
FBS average
12.74
vs FBS
-6.6%
Yards / game
104.0
On home team
47%
Home lean
-1.0 pts
Most called
False Start2.84 / game
Offensive Holding2.01 / game
Defensive Pass Interference1.38 / game
Defensive Offside0.78 / game
Defensive Holding0.57 / game
Personal Foul / Defense0.45 / game
96 games on file for this conference's crews over the last two seasons. Officials are not published for college games. College crews are assigned by conference, so this is the profile of the conference that staffs this game.
📋Coaching Staffs
Rice
Head coachScott Abell
East Carolina
Head coachBlake Harrell
Coordinators appear when the staff file lists them.
🏟️Situational Context
Kickoff
Sat Oct 10, 4:00 PM ET
Venue
Bagwell Field at Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
Location
Greenville, NC
Roof
outdoor
Conference game
Yes
Neutral site
No
Game type
regular
Officials
Not published