ChallengeFlag

College Football Intelligence — portal fit, roster lab, game intel

🎯 Game Intel
2026 • Week 6
UCF
UCF
Big 12 • Knights
AWAY
@
OKST
Oklahoma State
Big 12 • Cowboys
HOME
🎯Win Probability Forecast
UCF
38%
win probability
PROJECTED SCORE
UCF 22 – OKST 28
Total: 50 pts
High Data Confidence
Line: UCF -10.5 • total 53.5
Bovada • context only, not a pick
OKST (HOME)
62%
win probability
Model cfb-sp-v1: SP+ edge, home field, rest and travel. Officials are not published in the college feed, so there is no crew adjustment.
🧠What drives the forecast
✓Oklahoma State holds the ratings edge over UCF, about 1.5 points on SP+.
✓Home field for Oklahoma State is worth about 2.5 points.
✓Oklahoma State comes in with an extra week of rest.
✓UCF travels about 1,100 miles.
Penalty risk
🚩UCF draws False Start 1.0 times a game over 5 games.
⚔️Team Profiles
StatUCFOklahoma State
SP+ overall rank4034
SP+ offense rank6533
SP+ defense rank2342
Pass rate52%50%
Plays per game65.969.5
Explosive play rate7.0%5.8%
Explosives allowed4.9%7.3%
Sack rate (defense)6.7%6.0%
Offense success rate40.6%49.1%
Offense PPA / play0.110.16
Defense PPA allowed-0.04-0.03
Havoc rate (defense)15.5%16.3%
UCF derived scheme
limits explosivespass heavy
Oklahoma State derived scheme
balanced
SP+ and advanced stats from CFBD for the current season; scheme tags derived from the play-by-play. Lower rank is better.
🏃Officiating Crew
BIG-12 Big 12 officials
Big 12 crews call 5% fewer penalties than the FBS average (12.08 per game); the home-visitor split is even. Most common: False Start.
Flags / game
12.08
FBS average
12.74
vs FBS
-5.2%
Yards / game
105.1
On home team
50%
Home lean
+1.3 pts
Most called
False Start2.68 / game
Offensive Holding2.18 / game
Defensive Pass Interference1.52 / game
Defensive Offside0.65 / game
Defensive Holding0.58 / game
Delay of Game0.55 / game
124 games on file for this conference's crews over the last two seasons. Officials are not published for college games. College crews are assigned by conference, so this is the profile of the conference that staffs this game.
📋Coaching Staffs
UCF
Head coachScott Frost
Oklahoma State
Head coachEric Morris
Coordinators appear when the staff file lists them.
🏟️Situational Context
Kickoff
Sat Oct 10, 12:00 PM ET
Venue
Boone Pickens Stadium
Location
Stillwater, OK
Roof
outdoor
Conference game
Yes
Neutral site
No
Game type
regular
Officials
Not published