PROJECTED SCORE
BALL 8 – NW 42
Total: 50 pts
High Data Confidence
Line:
BALL -36 • total 52.5
Bovada • context only, not a pick
NW (HOME)
95%
win probability
Model cfb-sp-v1: SP+ edge, home field, rest and travel. Officials are not published in the college feed, so there is no crew adjustment.
✓Northwestern holds the ratings edge over Ball State, about 32.3 points on SP+.
✓Home field for Northwestern is worth about 2.5 points.
Penalty risk
🚩Big Ten crews call 17% fewer penalties than the FBS average (10.55 per game); the home-visitor split is even. Most common: False Start.
🚩NW draws False Start 2.5 times a game over 4 games. Big Ten (home conference assigns) crews call it 12% less often than FBS crews, so about 2.2 expected.
🚩NW draws Defensive Pass Interference 1.8 times a game over 4 games.