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College Football Intelligence — portal fit, roster lab, game intel

🎯 Game Intel
2026 • Week 6
SAC
Sacramento State
Mid-American • Hornets
AWAY
@
BGSU
Bowling Green
Mid-American • Falcons
HOME
🎯Win Probability Forecast
SAC
53%
win probability
PROJECTED SCORE
SAC 24 – BGSU 23
Total: 47 pts
High Data Confidence
Line: SAC -7.5 • total 43.5
DraftKings • context only, not a pick
BGSU (HOME)
47%
win probability
Model cfb-sp-v1: SP+ edge, home field, rest and travel. Officials are not published in the college feed, so there is no crew adjustment.
🧠What drives the forecast
✓Sacramento State holds the ratings edge over Bowling Green, about 3.5 points on SP+.
✓Home field for Bowling Green is worth about 2.5 points.
✓Sacramento State comes in with an extra week of rest.
✓Sacramento State travels about 2,000 miles.
Penalty risk
🚩BGSU draws Defensive Holding 1.2 times a game over 5 games. Mid-American crews call it 11% more often than FBS crews, so about 1.3 expected.
🚩SAC draws Offensive Holding 1.4 times a game over 5 games.
⚔️Team Profiles
StatSacramento StateBowling Green
SP+ overall rank131136
SP+ offense rank133138
SP+ defense rank124126
Pass rate55%44%
Plays per game70.263.3
Explosive play rate4.5%4.5%
Explosives allowed7.9%7.0%
Sack rate (defense)4.2%7.7%
Offense success rate41.8%36.9%
Offense PPA / play-0.06-0.06
Defense PPA allowed0.130.18
Havoc rate (defense)12.2%12.5%
Sacramento State derived scheme
pass heavy
Bowling Green derived scheme
balancedpressure defense
SP+ and advanced stats from CFBD for the current season; scheme tags derived from the play-by-play. Lower rank is better.
🏃Officiating Crew
MID-AMERICAN Mid-American officials
Mid-American crews call about as many penalties as the FBS average (12.39 per game); the home-visitor split is even. Most common: False Start.
Flags / game
12.39
FBS average
12.74
vs FBS
-2.7%
Yards / game
109.3
On home team
50%
Home lean
+1.8 pts
Most called
False Start2.52 / game
Offensive Holding2.0 / game
Defensive Pass Interference1.31 / game
Defensive Offside0.79 / game
Defensive Holding0.78 / game
Delay of Game0.65 / game
77 games on file for this conference's crews over the last two seasons. Officials are not published for college games. College crews are assigned by conference, so this is the profile of the conference that staffs this game.
📋Coaching Staffs
Sacramento State
Head coachAlonzo Carter
Bowling Green
Head coachEddie George
Coordinators appear when the staff file lists them.
🏟️Situational Context
Kickoff
Sat Oct 10, 12:00 PM ET
Venue
Doyt L. Perry Stadium
Location
Bowling Green, OH
Roof
outdoor
Conference game
Yes
Neutral site
No
Game type
regular
Officials
Not published