PROJECTED SCORE
IND 31 – NEB 23
Total: 54 pts
High Data Confidence
Line:
NEB -7.5 • total 47.5
DraftKings • context only, not a pick
NEB (HOME)
33%
win probability
Model cfb-sp-v1: SP+ edge, home field, rest and travel. Officials are not published in the college feed, so there is no crew adjustment.
✓Indiana holds the ratings edge over Nebraska, about 10.0 points on SP+.
✓Home field for Nebraska is worth about 2.5 points.
✓Indiana travels about 600 miles.
✓Indiana's offense ranks 5th in SP+.
✓Indiana's defense ranks 7th in SP+.
Penalty risk
🚩Big Ten crews call 17% fewer penalties than the FBS average (10.55 per game); the home-visitor split is even. Most common: False Start.
🚩NEB draws False Start 1.8 times a game over 5 games. Big Ten crews call it 12% less often than FBS crews, so about 1.6 expected.
🚩NEB draws Offensive Holding 1.6 times a game over 5 games. Big Ten crews call it 31% less often than FBS crews, so about 1.1 expected.