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College Football Intelligence — portal fit, roster lab, game intel

🎯 Game Intel
2026 • Week 6
USM
Southern Miss
Sun Belt • Golden Eagles
AWAY
FINAL
TROY
Troy
Sun Belt • Trojans
HOME
USM 34 – TROY 55 • FINAL
🎯Win Probability Forecast
USM
24%
win probability
PROJECTED SCORE
USM 20 – TROY 32
Total: 52 pts
High Data Confidence
Line: USM -9.5 • total 48.5
DraftKings • context only, not a pick
TROY (HOME)
76%
win probability
Model cfb-sp-v1: SP+ edge, home field, rest and travel. Officials are not published in the college feed, so there is no crew adjustment.
🧠What drives the forecast
✓Troy holds the ratings edge over Southern Miss, about 9.6 points on SP+.
✓Home field for Troy is worth about 2.5 points.
Penalty risk
🚩Sun Belt crews call 9% more penalties than the FBS average (13.81 per game); the home-visitor split is even. Most common: False Start.
🚩TROY draws Face Mask (15 Yards) 1.8 times a game over 4 games.
🚩USM draws False Start 1.5 times a game over 4 games.
🚩TROY draws Offensive Holding 1.0 times a game over 4 games. Sun Belt crews call it 16% more often than FBS crews, so about 1.2 expected.
⚔️Team Profiles
StatSouthern MissTroy
SP+ overall rank128104
SP+ offense rank115112
SP+ defense rank13284
Pass rate54%52%
Plays per game74.169.8
Explosive play rate7.2%5.4%
Explosives allowed5.7%7.1%
Sack rate (defense)6.3%7.7%
Offense success rate44.2%42.6%
Offense PPA / play0.080.13
Defense PPA allowed0.200.07
Havoc rate (defense)11.6%16.5%
Southern Miss derived scheme
pass heavyup tempo
Troy derived scheme
balancedpressure defense
SP+ and advanced stats from CFBD for the current season; scheme tags derived from the play-by-play. Lower rank is better.
🏃Officiating Crew
SUN-BELT Sun Belt officials
Sun Belt crews call 9% more penalties than the FBS average (13.85 per game); the home-visitor split is even. Most common: False Start.
Flags / game
13.85
FBS average
12.74
vs FBS
+8.7%
Yards / game
120.8
On home team
48%
Home lean
+0.1 pts
Most called
False Start2.82 / game
Offensive Holding2.49 / game
Defensive Pass Interference1.27 / game
Defensive Offside1.09 / game
Defensive Holding0.71 / game
Delay of Game0.66 / game
92 games on file for this conference's crews over the last two seasons. Officials are not published for college games. College crews are assigned by conference, so this is the profile of the conference that staffs this game.
📋Coaching Staffs
Southern Miss
Head coachBlake Anderson
Troy
Head coachGerad Parker
Coordinators appear when the staff file lists them.
🏟️Situational Context
Kickoff
Tue Oct 6, 8:00 PM ET
Venue
Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
Location
Troy, AL
Roof
outdoor
Conference game
Yes
Neutral site
No
Game type
regular
Officials
Not published