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College Football Intelligence — portal fit, roster lab, game intel

🎯 Game Intel
2026 • Week 6
WYO
Wyoming
Mountain West • Cowboys
AWAY
@
SJSU
San Jose State
Mountain West • Spartans
HOME
WYO 3 – SJSU 0 • 1 8:30
🎯Win Probability Forecast
WYO
49%
win probability
PROJECTED SCORE
WYO 22 – SJSU 23
Total: 45 pts
High Data Confidence
Line: WYO -4.5 • total 42.5
DraftKings • context only, not a pick
SJSU (HOME)
51%
win probability
Model cfb-sp-v1: SP+ edge, home field, rest and travel. Officials are not published in the college feed, so there is no crew adjustment.
🧠What drives the forecast
✓Wyoming holds the ratings edge over San Jose State, about 2.4 points on SP+.
✓Home field for San Jose State is worth about 2.5 points.
✓Wyoming travels about 900 miles.
Penalty risk
🚩SJSU draws Offensive Holding 1.6 times a game over 5 games. Mountain West crews call it 24% more often than FBS crews, so about 2.0 expected.
🚩SJSU draws False Start 1.4 times a game over 5 games.
🚩WYO draws False Start 1.2 times a game over 5 games.
⚔️Team Profiles
StatWyomingSan Jose State
SP+ overall rank116119
SP+ offense rank126125
SP+ defense rank80105
Pass rate51%60%
Plays per game64.670.4
Explosive play rate5.6%6.2%
Explosives allowed5.4%5.8%
Sack rate (defense)4.7%4.8%
Offense success rate43.2%39.0%
Offense PPA / play0.080.10
Defense PPA allowed0.140.06
Havoc rate (defense)14.2%14.2%
Wyoming derived scheme
balancedlimits explosives
San Jose State derived scheme
early down aggressivepass heavy
SP+ and advanced stats from CFBD for the current season; scheme tags derived from the play-by-play. Lower rank is better.
🏃Officiating Crew
MOUNTAIN-WEST Mountain West officials
Mountain West crews call 5% more penalties than the FBS average (13.38 per game); the flags lean toward the visitor. Most common: Offensive Holding.
Flags / game
13.38
FBS average
12.74
vs FBS
+5.0%
Yards / game
117.9
On home team
44%
Home lean
-4.1 pts
Most called
Offensive Holding2.68 / game
False Start2.43 / game
Defensive Pass Interference1.08 / game
Defensive Holding0.95 / game
Defensive Offside0.79 / game
Personal Foul / Defense0.67 / game
63 games on file for this conference's crews over the last two seasons. Officials are not published for college games. College crews are assigned by conference, so this is the profile of the conference that staffs this game.
📋Coaching Staffs
Wyoming
Head coachJay Sawvel
San Jose State
Head coachKen Niumatalolo
Coordinators appear when the staff file lists them.
🏟️Situational Context
Kickoff
Fri Oct 9, 9:00 PM ET
Venue
CEFCU Stadium
Location
San Jose, CA
Roof
outdoor
Conference game
Yes
Neutral site
No
Game type
regular
Officials
Not published